Japan Economics Update Wage growth stronger than official data suggest The bulk of the evidence suggests that the recent sharp slowdown in regular earnings growth is a statistical anomaly rather than genuine. With this year’s spring wage negotiations resulting in the... 27th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the economy a boost over the next couple of years, but we think growth will then slow, deindustrialisation will continue, and real income... 23rd May 2025 · 16 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Disinflation to continue outside the US Inflation has fallen further towards central banks’ targets and we expect it to remain subdued across most of the world. Tariffs will cause a temporary uplift in the US. But elsewhere, their economic... 22nd May 2025 · 19 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t claim victory in inflation fight just yet Although the RBA is almost certain to slash its policy rate by 25bp at its meeting next Tuesday, it will probably remain cautious about commiting to further policy easing. After all, business surveys... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Apr. 25) With the labour market going from strength to strength, we’re more convinced than ever that the RBA will be reluctant to cut rates aggressively. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast for a... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q1 2025) The pick-up in wage growth in Q1 won’t prevent the RBA from cutting interest rates next week but it will limit the scope of additional easing thereafter. 14th May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Mar./Apr. 2025) The jobs market weakened further in the face of April’s rise in payroll taxes and the national minimum wage. But with wage growth still stuck in the 5.5-6.0% range and energy prices set to drive up... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Exports hold up despite tariff blow Trade with the US plunged in March, but a spike in exports elsewhere meant that overall exports were little changed. Nonetheless, we doubt that exporters will be able to rely on non-US demand to... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Apr. 2025) Employment would have fallen again in April were it not for the boost from the federal election, which supports our view that the Bank of Canada will resume its loosening cycle next month and... 9th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Weakness in wage growth probably not genuine While the trade deal agreed between the UK and the US this week sets an encouraging precedent, there are no signs of progress in the talks between Japan and the US. Meanwhile, the recent slump in... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
